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| #1046085 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 AM 23.May.2021) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Ana Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012021 1100 AM AST Sun May 23 2021 Ana is barely holding on as a tropical cyclone this morning, as the core of the system has become devoid of organized deep convection. A recent ASCAT overpass showed that wind field is slowly weakening, with peak winds of 35 kt located just to the southeast of the center. Based on this data, the initial advisory intensity has also been decreased to 35 kt. The cyclone is currently located over cool SSTs of about 20 degrees C and surrounded by very dry air in the mid-troposphere. The environmental conditions will only become more hostile through tonight, as Ana gets caught between a digging mid- to upper-level trough to its northwest and a strong subtropical upper-level jet to its southeast. These features will impart increasing southwesterly shear over the system by later today, and any convection that tries to regenerate should be stripped away. Whatever is left of Ana`s low-level circulation should then open into a trough on Monday as it becomes absorbed by a large approaching baroclinic zone associated with the upper-trough. The storm is now moving northeastward at 12 kt, and an accelerating forward speed is anticipated until dissipation as Ana gets caught up in increasing deep-layered southwesterly flow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 36.6N 59.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 38.0N 56.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 41.7N 50.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto |