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| #1046121 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 PM 23.May.2021) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Ana Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012021 500 PM AST Sun May 23 2021 Other than brief puff of convection late this morning, tiny Ana has been devoid of organized deep convection for several hours. ASCAT overpass data from this morning indicated that the peak winds had deceased to 35 kt. Due to the lack of convection since that time, it is reasonable to assume that the vortex has spun down a bit, and therefore the initial advisory intensity has been lowered to 30 kt. Ana is over cool waters and surrounded by very dry air in the mid-troposphere. The brief convection that did occur today was quickly stripped away, indicating that the anticipated increase in shear has begun. Satellite imagery suggests that the circulation of Ana is approaching a strong subtropical upper-level jet just to its east, which is expected to produce even stronger shear over the cyclone. These conditions should prevent further convection, if any, from surviving, and the cyclone is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by tonight. What is left of Ana`s low-level circulation should open into a trough on Monday as it is absorbed by a large baroclinic zone approaching from the northwest. The depression continues to accelerate northeastward, and the forward motion is now northeastward at 15 kt. An accelerating northwestward motion is anticipated until dissipation as Ana gets caught up in increasing deep-layer southwesterly flow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 37.5N 57.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 39.4N 53.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto |