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#1048772 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 PM 14.Jun.2021)
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022021
500 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

Deep convection has weakened some this afternoon near the center of
the depression, and the cloud pattern definitely is showing signs of
shear. However, visible satellite imagery still indicates that it
has a tight circulation, and past experience suggests with that kind
of low-level structure, the depression is close to becoming a
tropical storm. None of the conventional intensity estimates,
however, show the system as a storm yet, and since scatterometer
data also totally missed this morning, 30 kt will stay as the
initial wind speed. No change is made to the intensity forecast from
the last advisory, with the system having about 24 hours of time
over marginally warm water to intensify. Afterwards, the cyclone
should quickly lose convection and transition into an extratropical
low, and dissipate near Newfoundland. This forecast is somewhat
higher than the the guidance consensus on this cycle, but given that
I was on the low side on the first forecast compared to guidance, I
decided to hold steady and not waffle like the models are prone to
doing.

The depression is moving northeastward at about 16 kt, a little
slower than before. Model guidance is in excellent agreement on
large trough over eastern North America causing the depression to
accelerate quite a bit in that general direction during the next
day or two. The northeastward track is forecast to continue until
the system dissipates near Newfoundland on Wednesday while it is
absorbed by a larger extratropical low. The model guidance has
shifted a little south of the previous advisory, and the NHC track
prediction is shifted in that direction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 35.5N 72.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 37.5N 68.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 40.9N 62.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 45.0N 57.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake