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| #1050719 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 PM 28.Jun.2021) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Danny Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042021 500 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Deep convection has exploded this afternoon over the center of what is now Tropical Storm Danny. Reconnaissance aircraft measured 49 kt winds at the 850-mb fight-level, which equals roughly a 39-kt surface wind. In addition, Doppler velocity data from the Charleston radar measured average velocities of 49 kt at 6000-7000 ft, which also equate to about 40-kt surface winds. A reconnaissance aircraft dropsonde also measured a central pressure of 1009 mb. Based on these data, the advisory intensity has been increased to 40 kt. The initial motion estimate is 290/14 kt. Tiny Danny is forecast to maintain a west-northwestward motion for the next day or so, with landfall expected along the southern coast of South Carolina likely occurring by 0000 UTC this evening. The small tropical cyclone should continue to move inland across southern South Carolina and eastern Georgia tonight and early Tuesday, with dissipation expected over the mountains of northern Georgia by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the left of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus track models HCCA, TVCA, and GFEX. No additional strengthening is anticipated before Danny makes landfall. Rapid weakening should commence shortly after landfall, with Danny likely becoming a remnant low by Tuesday morning. The official intensity forecast follows a blend for the Decay-SHIPS statistical model for inland tropical cyclones, and the intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall is possible from coastal southern South Carolina and Georgia, inland across the Piedmont of Georgia into northeast Alabama. Isolated flooding is possible across urban areas of the southern South Carolina and Georgia coasts. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of the South Carolina coast late this afternoon and tonight where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. Swells generated by Tropical Storm Danny are expected to affect portions of the South Carolina coast through tonight. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 32.3N 80.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 33.2N 82.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 29/1800Z 34.3N 85.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart |