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| #1051656 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 PM 05.Jul.2021) TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 2100 UTC MON JUL 05 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO THE AUCILLA RIVER INCLUDING TAMPA BAY. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTH OF CRAIG KEY AND FLORIDA BAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA AND SANCTI SPIRITUS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE AUCILLA RIVER INCLUDING TAMPA BAY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA... MAYABEQUE...HAVANA...AND ARTEMISA * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO NORTHWARD TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF THE AUCILLA RIVER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS...FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS IN COASTAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 81.9W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 81.9W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 81.6W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.1N 82.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 26.1N 83.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 28.2N 83.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 30.6N 83.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 32.8N 81.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 35.5N 78.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 41.5N 69.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 49.0N 56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 81.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 06/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH |