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| #1056582 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 PM 12.Aug.2021) TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 2100 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...AND FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTH AND EAST TO OCEAN REEF...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...AND GRANMA * THE FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS * THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTH AND EAST TO OCEAN REEF INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRED. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 75.3W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 75.3W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 75.0W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.0N 77.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 23.0N 79.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 24.0N 80.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 25.2N 81.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 26.4N 83.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 28.1N 84.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 31.0N 85.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 33.5N 85.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 75.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 13/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |