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| #1056655 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 13.Aug.2021) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 500 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 Fred continues to produce heavy rains across eastern Cuba and portions of the southeastern Bahamas this morning. However, despite the areas of heavy rain, the system remains poorly organized. Most of the deep convection is located to the east of the center and there is little evidence of banding features. The last pass by the Air Force Hurricane Hunters several hours ago and earlier ASCAT-A data indicated that maximum winds were around 30 kt. Since the storm has changed little in appearance since that time, the initial intensity is held at that value. The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Fred later this morning, and the data both planes collect will be helpful in assessing Fred`s intensity and structure. Fred continues to move west-northwestward at about 9 kt. This motion should persist for about another day as the storm continues to move in the flow on the southwest side of a subtropical ridge. After that time, a turn to the northwest and then the north is predicted as Fred moves around the western side of the ridge. Based on this expected motion, the storm should track just north of eastern and central Cuba through tonight and near or across the Florida Keys on Saturday. After that time, there is more spread in the models due to the uncertainty in exactly where and when Fred makes the northwest and north turns. The range in the model solutions this cycle span from over the Florida peninsula to the east-central Gulf of Mexico. Since the typically best-performing models ended up almost on top of the previous prediction, very little change to the track was required. The system is still battling about 20 kt of westerly vertical wind shear, which is part of the reason why the convective pattern is disheveled. The shear is only expected to lessen slightly during the next couple of days, but since the environmental moisture is abundant and SSTs are very warm, gradual strengthening seems likely as Fred moves across the Florida Keys and then near or offshore of the west coast of Florida this weekend. The shear is expected to increase again before Fred makes its final landfall along the Florida panhandle in a few days, and that will likely prevent additional intensification. Steady weakening is expected after the storm moves inland. The intensity guidance is in very good agreement, and this forecast lies near the high end of the models. It should be noted that much of the Florida peninsula is expected to be on the east side of Fred, which is where the heaviest rains and strongest winds will be. KEY MESSAGES: 1. From today into Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, small stream, and exacerbated river flooding, across southern and central Florida into the Big Bend. From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Florida Keys on Saturday, where a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued. 3. Tropical storm conditions are possible late Saturday and early Sunday across portions of the west coast of Florida in the Tropical Storm Watch area. The risk of tropical storm conditions will spread northward along the Florida west coast and to the Florida Panhandle Sunday and Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 22.0N 76.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 22.6N 78.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 23.6N 80.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 24.8N 81.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 26.4N 82.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 15/1800Z 28.1N 83.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 29.6N 84.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 32.5N 85.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 18/0600Z 35.5N 85.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |