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| #1056722 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 PM 13.Aug.2021) TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 2100 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES IN CUBA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS * FLORIDA BAY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ENGLEWOOD SOUTH AND EAST TO OCEAN REEF A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRED. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 79.6W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 79.6W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 79.1W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 23.0N 81.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 24.2N 82.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 25.4N 83.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 27.0N 84.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 28.8N 85.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 30.2N 86.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 33.5N 86.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 37.0N 85.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 79.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 14/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN |