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| #1056780 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:47 AM 14.Aug.2021) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 18A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 200 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 ...DISORGANIZED FRED CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 81.0W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF VARADERO CUBA ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Dry Tortugas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests in Cuba and in the Florida peninsula and Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of Fred. Watches could be required for portions of the Florida panhandle later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 81.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest is expected to occur later this morning, followed by a northwest motion by tonight. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to pass near or west of the lower Florida Keys this afternoon, move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Sunday, and move inland over the northern Gulf coast on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast, and Fred could become a tropical storm again by tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding. Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain with local amounts of 8 inches is anticipated across the Keys and southern Florida. Across the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle, 3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches are expected. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new minor flooding across the western Florida Peninsula and exacerbate ongoing minor to isolated moderate flooding in northern Florida. From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the warning area across the Florida Keys later today. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across the Florida Keys later this morning and reach the coast of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may be possible starting this afternoon across portions of central and southern Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |