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| #1057006 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 AM 15.Aug.2021) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the remnants of Fred have re-developed into a tropical cyclone over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Satellite imagery shows a well-defined low-level center near the northern end of a broadly curved convective band. The Hurricane Hunters reported a central pressure of 1008 mb, along with 925-mb flight-level winds of 52 kt and SFMR wind estimates near 35 kt about 70 n mi northeast of the center. Based on these developments and data, the system was upgraded back to Tropical Storm Fred a couple of hours ago. The center re-formed northward during the redevelopment process, and the initial position is re-located to the north of the previous advisory position. While the forecast guidance is basically unchanged in calling for a north-northwest motion followed by a turn toward the north near landfall on the northern Gulf coast, the new initial position requires the forecast track to be shifted about 40 n mi to the east of the previous track through the landfall time. Fred is now expected to make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle sometime Monday afternoon or evening. Upper-level southwesterly flow between a trough to the north and northwest of Fred and an anticyclone to the southeast of the storm should keep the tropical cyclone in moderate southwesterly vertical shear until landfall. The intensity guidance forecasts gradual intensification before landfall, and the official intensity forecast follows the guidance in calling for a peak intensity of 45 kt. After landfall, Fred should quickly weaken and dissipate as it moves into the Tennessee Valley. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of Fred, since rainfall, storm surge, and wind hazards will extend over an area well east of the center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Today through Tuesday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, small stream and river flooding impacts across southern Florida, the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle, southern Alabama, portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas. From Tuesday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could continue into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area. 2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is possible along portions of the coast of the Florida Panhandle, and a Storm Surge Warning has been issued for this area. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Florida Panhandle beginning on Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 26.1N 84.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 27.4N 85.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 28.9N 86.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 30.5N 86.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/1200Z 32.5N 86.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 18/0000Z 34.7N 85.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |