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| #1057198 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:06 AM 16.Aug.2021) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 Fred became better organized on satellite and radar images this morning, with the center fairly well embedded within a small CDO and a large convective band over the eastern portion of the circulation. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters found flight-level winds that supported an intensity of 50 kt, and data from the aircraft also found that the central pressure had fallen to 993 mb, although the most recent pressures appeared to have leveled off. The satellite and radar data also show a dry slot over the southeastern quadrant. Fred is over very warm waters of near 30 deg C and within a fairly moist mid-level atmosphere. A little more strengthening is possible prior to landfall, but significant southwesterly shear is likely to limit strengthening. Also, the storm has little time remaining over water. The latest official intensity forecast is similar to the LGEM guidance. Center fixes from the Hurricane Hunters and WSR-88D data from Tallahassee and Eglin AFB indicate that Fred is a little east of the previous track. It is not certain whether this is due to a slight reformation of the center nearer to the strongest convection, but that is certainly a possibility. Based on the most recent fixes, the current motion estimate is just slightly east of north, or 010/9 kt. Fred is moving between the western side of a mid-level subtropical high pressure area over the southwestern Atlantic and a weak trough over the east-central United States. A slight bend of the track toward the north-northeast with a little acceleration is expected during the next couple of days. The official forecast is just a bit to the east of the previous one, and follows the most recent multi-model consensus. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of Fred, since rainfall, storm surge, and wind hazards will extend over an area well east of the center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across the Southeast. By the middle of the week as Fred lifts north and inland, heavy rainfall and flooding will impact the southern and central Appalachians, the Piedmont of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Landslides are possible across the mountains of North Carolina and Blue Ridge Escarpment on Tuesday. 2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected along portions of the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend region. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the Storm Surge Warning area. 3. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area and will spread farther inland later today and tonight across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southwestern Georgia, and southeastern Alabama. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 29.2N 85.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 30.5N 85.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 17/1200Z 32.6N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/0000Z 35.0N 84.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 18/1200Z 38.0N 82.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |