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| #1060194 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 AM 04.Sep.2021) TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 AM AST Sat Sep 04 2021 Larry`s strengthening trend appears to have paused for the moment. The hurricane has generally changed little during the past several hours with the inner core still fairly symmetric, though cloud tops are coldest to the south of the ragged eye. The outer bands are also quite distinct, especially to the south of the center. The latest Dvorak estimates still range from 90 to 110 kt, and based on that data, the initial intensity is held at 100 kt. The hurricane is moving west-northwestward, or 295 degrees, at 14 kt. Larry is expected to continue moving west-northwestward to northwestward during the next few days as it remains steered by a subtropical ridge to its northeast. By the middle of next week, a turn to the north-northwest is forecast when the hurricane reaches the western periphery of the ridge. The models are in fairly good agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies fairly close to the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids. Based on this forecast, Larry is expected to be moving across the central Atlantic during the next several days and approach Bermuda by the end of the forecast period. Larry is expected to remain in generally favorable conditions for strengthening during the next couple of days, with SSTs increasing along the storm`s track and vertical wind shear remaining fairly low. The models suggest that there could be an increase in shear early next week, and that combined with slightly drier and more stable air should end the strengthening trend and likely cause some weakening. It should be noted that eyewall replacement cycles are a possibility at some point during the forecast period, and these can cause intensity fluctuations that are difficult to predict. Regardless of the details, Larry is expected to remain a major hurricane during the next several days. The NHC intensity forecast is just an update of the previous one and lies near the high end of the model guidance. Significant ocean swells generated by Larry`s growing wind field are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday, and then spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents and high surf conditions. Large swells are also likely to spread to the east coast of the United States by midweek. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 16.3N 44.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 17.2N 46.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 18.4N 48.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 19.7N 50.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 21.0N 52.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 06/1800Z 22.0N 54.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 23.3N 56.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 26.1N 59.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 30.6N 62.0W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |