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| #1060384 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:06 PM 05.Sep.2021) TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 PM AST Sun Sep 05 2021 The overall structure of Larry has changed little today. A large eye remains surrounded by a cold ring of convection with cloud tops of -75 to -80 C. The only notable difference between now and several hours ago has been that some cloud cover has become evident within the eye. A blend of the latest T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB suggest that the initial intensity remains 110 kt. Larry is moving northwestward, or 315/11 kt, around the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge. There has been no change to the forecast track reasoning, nor has there been any notable change to the NHC forecast track from the previous advisory, due to the forecast models remaining in excellent agreement. A northwestward motion is expected to continue for the next few days to the southwest of the ridge. In a few days, the hurricane is forecast to reach the western periphery of this ridge, resulting in the cyclone beginning gradual recurvature to the north then northeast into the mid-latitude westerlies. Other than some minor fluctuations in intensity due to internal influences, the stable, annular-like structure of Larry should allow for it to remain a major hurricane for the next couple of days, despite being surrounded by some mid-level dry air. By day 4, the cyclone is forecast to move over waters of progressively decreasing oceanic heat content, which should induce gradual weakening. The latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the corrected consensus HCCA and DSHP, which have been two of the best performing models for Larry`s intensity thus far. Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles today and will spread to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday. Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the advice of lifeguards and local officials this week. 2. Larry is forecast to approach Bermuda during the next several days, likely as a major hurricane, bringing a risk of strong winds, heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding to the island by the middle of this week. While it is too soon to determine the magnitude of these hazards and potential impacts on Bermuda, interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 20.5N 50.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 21.6N 51.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 22.7N 53.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 23.9N 54.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 25.3N 56.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 26.8N 57.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 28.5N 59.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 32.8N 61.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 39.8N 58.7W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto |