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| #1064393 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 PM 03.Oct.2021) TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Victor Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 500 PM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 The convective structure of Victor has deteriorated this afternoon. Only small pulses of convection have been observed north of the center over the past several hours. Victor`s exposed low-level circulation is also becoming more diffuse, with multiple cloud swirls noted in visible satellite imagery. Hopefully, scatterometer data this evening will provide more information about whether Victor still possesses a closed and well-defined surface center. For now, Victor is held as a 30-kt tropical depression, which is consistent with earlier scatterometer winds and a blend of the data-T and current intensity Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Victor is unlikely to remain a tropical cyclone for much longer. The dry mid-level environment and 20-25 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear are expected to limit Victor`s ability to sustain deep, organized convection going forward. Even if another diurnal convective pulse occurs tonight, it should be quickly stripped away from the center by the moderate to strong shear. The official NHC forecast shows Victor becoming a remnant low on Monday, then opening up into a trough and dissipating soon thereafter. Victor is moving northwestward, or 315/11 kt. A northwestward or west-northwestward motion is expected to continue through dissipation as the depression is steered by a subtropical ridge to its northeast. The official NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 17.1N 41.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 18.4N 42.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 19.7N 45.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart |