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| #1068200 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 AM 02.Nov.2021) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021 900 AM GMT Tue Nov 02 2021 Wanda has become a little better organized since yesterday evening with convection, albeit not very deep, now wrapping around the center of the storm. Apparently the vertical shear over the cyclone has relaxed somewhat, and the center is now more embedded within the convection. This implies that some strengthening has occurred and the intensity estimate is increased to 45 kt for this advisory. This is also in agreement with a subjective Dvorak satellite estimate from SAB. Interestingly, satellite-derived SST analyses indicate that Wanda is currently located over a small patch of warmer ocean waters, near 25 deg C. The storm is moving a little faster toward the east-northeast, or at about 060/7 kt. During the next couple of days, Wanda is likely to remain embedded within a mid-tropospheric trough . A turn toward the north is expected during the next 48 to 60 hours while the system moves along the eastern portion of the trough. Later in the forecast period, a ridge building to the west and northwest of Wanda should force a turn toward the east and east-southeast. The official forecast has been shifted to the right of the previous NHC track at days 4 and 5, following the latest dynamical model consensus. It should be noted that the GFS model shows a track significantly farther south at this later time frame. Although Wanda will soon be moving over cooler waters, the SHIPS, LGEM, and HCCA intensity guidance indicate that the system will strengthen a little more in the short term, and then more or less maintain its intensity for the next 48 hours or so. This is probably due to fairly low vertical shear and relatively cool upper-tropospheric temperatures during this time. Later, gradual weakening is likely, due to increased shear and cool waters. However baroclinic effects could at least partially offset the weakening process. The official intensity forecast is in good agreement with the corrected model consensus, HCCA, solution. Around 72 hours, simulated satellite imagery shows a loss of tropical cyclone-like cloud structure so the NHC forecast indicates a post-tropical phase by that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 35.0N 40.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 36.1N 40.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 37.8N 39.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 39.8N 39.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 41.6N 39.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 04/1800Z 42.6N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 43.0N 37.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 06/0600Z 41.8N 33.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 07/0600Z 41.0N 29.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Pasch |