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| #1068553 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:39 PM 04.Nov.2021) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021 300 AM GMT Fri Nov 05 2021 The cloud pattern of Wanda has generally changed little during the past several hours. The storm is still producing bands of deep convection near and to the west of the center, with dry and stable air limiting the amount of convection on the east side. An ASCAT pass from a few hours ago showed maximum winds in the 40-45 kt range, and based on that data and the Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is nudged up to 45 kt. Satellite images indicate that Wanda has turned to the right, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 090/5 kt. Wanda is expected to turn southeastward on Friday and then southward on Saturday as a mid-level ridge builds to the north and west of the cyclone. After that time, a deep-layer trough is expected to approach Wanda, resulting in a turn to the northeast at increasing forward speeds Sunday and Monday. The latest models have trended southward during the next couple of days, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted in that direction. Wanda will likely move over slightly warmer waters and into a more unstable environment during the next couple of days, which should allow the storm to maintain its intensity or strengthen slightly during that time period. The global models all agree that Wanda will merge with a strong front in about 72 hours. Therefore, the new NHC forecast shows extratropical transition completing by that time period. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the guidance in the short term, but is near the middle of the guidance envelope after that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 42.3N 38.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 41.0N 38.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 39.1N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 37.5N 37.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 37.7N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 40.5N 34.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 44.4N 29.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/0000Z 50.8N 21.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |