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| #1068806 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 PM 06.Nov.2021) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021 900 PM GMT Sat Nov 06 2021 Convection associated with Wanda has decreased during the past several hours, with only a small convective cluster occurring just east of the center. In addition, scatterometer data received since the last advisory suggests that the maximum winds have decreased to near 40 kt. That will be the initial intensity for this advisory. Wanda is starting its long-anticipated northeastward turn, with the initial motion now 090/3 kt. Developing deep-layer southwesterly flow on the southeast side of a large mid-latitude low pressure area should cause the cyclone to accelerate northeastward during the next 12 h, with a fast northeastward motion continuing until Wanda dissipates between 36-48 h. The track guidance is in good agreement, and the new track forecast lies near the various consensus models. Despite the recent weakening, the intensity guidance still forecasts some intensification during the next 12-24 h, possibly due to increased upper-level divergence over the cyclone caused by the mid-latitude low or the upcoming significant increase in forward speed. The new intensity forecast will continue to call for Wanda to strengthen for 24 h, although given current trends it would not be surprising if it did not. The cyclone is expected to merge with a cold front between 24-36 h, and the forecast follows the the global model guidance in calling for the circulation to dissipate by 48 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 37.0N 37.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 38.5N 35.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 42.2N 30.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 47.4N 23.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |