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| #1093870 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 PM 02.Jun.2022) TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022 1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022 Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the broad area of low pressure centered near the coast of the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula has changed little in organization this evening. Strong southwesterly shear continues to keep the associated deep convection confined to the east and northeast of the estimated center of the system. There have been very little new data to provide clarity of the system`s intensity since the previous advisory. However, based on the system`s consistently ragged appearance, it is assumed that there has been little change from the 30 kt analyzed from the previous advisory. The 1003 mb central pressure is based on surface observations. Another Air Force reconnaissance aircraft will be investigating the low overnight. The system still does not have a well-defined center, and for this reason it is not yet being classified as a tropical cyclone. There have been a few low-level swirls evident in satellite images rotating around a larger mean center, and this center appears to have been slowly meandering northward for the past several hours. Models are in good agreement that the system should begin to turn northeastward and increase its forward speed overnight and Friday as it encounters mid-latitude westerlies. This motion should continue for the remainder of the forecast period. The latest NHC forecast is a little faster than the previous one due to an overall increase in forward motion by most of the models. It should continue to be noted that most model solutions indicate that the center will likely re-form due to convective bursts during the next couple of days, which may cause some jumps in the track not indicated in the official forecast. Based on the latest NHC forecast track, the center of the the system should cross the southern or central portion of the Florida peninsula on Saturday. The broad nature of this system combined with strong shear should limit its development before reaching the Florida Peninsula. However, the deep convective bursts will likely result in consolidation of a low-level center sometime or the next 12 h or so resulting in genesis, with some slight strengthening into a tropical storm indicated by late tomorrow. After crossing Florida, the system is forecast to interact with an upper-trough which could allow for some additional strengthening. By 120 h, the storm is forecast to encounter cooler waters and should be interacting with a baroclinic zone, thus transforming it into an extratropical cyclone. Based on the latest forecast, Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys. The main impact from this system will be widespread heavy rain that is expected to spread over portions of western Cuba, the southern Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas during the next couple of days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rain associated with the system is expected to continue through Friday across the eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are possible across western Cuba. 2. Heavy rain will begin to affect South Florida and the Florida Keys Friday and continue through Saturday. Considerable flash and urban flooding is possible across South Florida and in the Keys. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the Florida Keys and the southwestern coast of Florida Friday night and early Saturday, and are possible in the watch area elsewhere in Florida Friday night through Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are also possible in the watch area in western Cuba Friday and Friday night, and in the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 21.8N 87.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 03/1200Z 22.5N 87.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 04/0000Z 23.9N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 25.6N 83.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 27.6N 80.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 05/1200Z 29.9N 77.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 31.6N 74.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 34.2N 67.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 35.9N 62.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Latto/Cangialosi |