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| #1093904 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 03.Jun.2022) TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022 The disturbance near the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula appears slightly more organized this morning, with persistent deep convection ongoing near and to the east of the estimated center. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated the system a couple hours ago, and although they found a sharp low-level wind shift, there was not yet conclusive evidence of a west wind to close off a circulation. The plane did, however, measure peak 925-mb flight-level winds of 46 kt, which along with believable SFMR winds of 30-35 kt, suggests that the disturbance is producing tropical-storm-force winds. The system does not get the designation of a tropical storm until we have evidence that a well-defined center has formed, and another reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance in a couple of hours to see if that has happened. Although there is uncertainty in the system`s center location, the disturbance appears to have turned toward the northeast with a motion of 040/4 kt. As the system gets picked up by mid-latitude westerlies to its north, it is expected to accelerate toward the northeast or east-northeast during the next few days, bringing it across Florida within the next day or two and then over the waters of the western Atlantic. There is very little cross-track spread in the guidance, which usually means there is high confidence in the forecast track. However, given that a center has not yet formed, it`s entirely possible that the entire suite of track models could shift north or south on subsequent forecast cycles if a center forms farther north or south than we`re expecting. The track guidance has sped up a little on this cycle, and the updated NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous forecast in an attempt to catch up to the model consensus aids. The disturbance is not expected to break free from the grasps of strong 20-30 kt of southwesterly shear, which is expected to limit the amount of intensification in the coming days. More or less in line with a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models, which should have a decent handle on a sprawling system like this one, the NHC intensity forecast only shows the system strengthening slightly during its approach to Florida and exit to the western Atlantic waters. Global model guidance suggests that the system could become involved with frontal boundaries in about 4 days, and the new forecast now shows extratropical transition being complete by that time. Based on the latest forecast and its inherent uncertainties, additional Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the east coast of Florida, western Cuba, and the northwestern Bahamas. The main impact from this system continues to be widespread heavy rain that is expected to spread over portions of western Cuba, the southern Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas during the next couple of days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rain associated with the system is expected across western Cuba, where life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are possible. 2. Heavy rain will affect portions of Central Florida, South Florida, and the Florida Keys today and continue through Saturday. Considerable flash and urban flooding is possible across South Florida and in the Keys. Flash and urban flooding is also possible across the northwestern Bahamas. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in western Cuba today and tonight, in Florida tonight and on Saturday, and in the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are also possible in the watch area in western Cuba today and tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 22.3N 86.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 03/1800Z 23.5N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 04/0600Z 25.3N 83.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 27.1N 80.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/0600Z 29.1N 77.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 05/1800Z 31.0N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 32.5N 70.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 34.1N 62.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 08/0600Z 34.8N 57.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg |