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| #1093941 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 AM 03.Jun.2022) TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022 Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the circulation associated with the disturbance has become a little better defined over the Gulf of Mexico north of the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, and that the central pressure is near 1002 mb. However, the associated convection is poorly organized, with radar data from Cuba and Mexico showing that the strong convection over the northwestern Caribbean Sea more resembles a mid-latitude squall line than a tropical cyclone rain band. In addition, the airplane has yet to report tropical-storm force winds, although it has not yet sampled the areas of stronger convection. Based on the current data, the system has not yet become a tropical storm and will remain a potential tropical cyclone on this advisory. The initial motion is an uncertain 035/4 kt. The system is about to encounter the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies, and the guidance is in good agreement that a faster motion toward the northeast should begin later today and continue through about 72 h. Based on this, the forecast track continues to bring the system across the southern or central Florida Peninsula on Saturday. After 72 h, the system should move east-northeastward across the western Atlantic. The track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and the new forecast track is little changed from the previous forecast. It should be noted that due to the poor organization, there is the possibility of the center re-forming due to convective bursts, which would cause some erratic motion to occur. Although 20-30 kt of westerly shear is forecast to continue until the system reaches Florida, it is likely that convective bursts near the center will create enough organized convection for the system to become a tropical storm in the next 12-24 h. This could also cause slight strengthening before the system reaches Florida. A little more strengthening is forecast over the Atlantic, due primarily to interaction with a mid-latitude trough. This interaction will eventually lead to extratropical transition, which is forecast to be complete at about 96 h. The new intensity forecast has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast. The main impact from this system continues to be widespread heavy rain that is expected to spread over portions of western Cuba, the southern Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas during the next couple of days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rain associated with the system is expected across western Cuba, where life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are possible. 2. Heavy rain will affect portions of Central Florida, South Florida, and the Florida Keys today and continue through Saturday. Considerable flash and urban flooding is possible across South Florida and in the Keys. Flash and urban flooding is also possible across the northwestern Bahamas. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in western Cuba today and tonight, in Florida tonight and on Saturday, and in the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are also possible in the watch area in western Cuba today and tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 22.3N 86.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 04/0000Z 23.9N 85.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 04/1200Z 25.8N 82.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 27.7N 79.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 29.7N 76.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 06/0000Z 31.4N 72.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 32.7N 68.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 34.0N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 08/1200Z 35.5N 56.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven |