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| #1094155 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 PM 04.Jun.2022) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022 500 PM EDT Sat Jun 04 2022 ...CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE EMERGES INTO THE ATLANTIC EAST OF FLORIDA... ...FLOODING RAINS AND STRONG WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.8N 79.8W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NE OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA ABOUT 950 MI...1525 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the east coast of Florida. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible somewhere within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 79.8 West. The system is moving toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast with an additional increase in forward speed is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn toward the east Monday night. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move away from the east coast of Florida this evening, move over the southwestern Atlantic north of the Bahamas tonight, and move near or to the north of Bermuda on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm off the east coast of Florida tonight, and some strengthening is forecast tonight through Monday as the system moves farther away from Florida over the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days... high...90 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 210 miles (335 km) to the east of the center. A weather station at Settlement Point on Grand Bahama Island recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 49 mph (80 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will diminish across South Florida and the Keys through this evening. Heavy rain will continue across the northwestern Bahamas tonight before diminishing by early Sunday. Heavy rain may begin to impact Bermuda Sunday night into Monday. The following storm totals are expected: South Florida: 6 to 10 inches with isolated maxima of 15 inches. Urban flooding is expected to continue. Florida Keys: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maxima of 10 inches. This rain may produce flash and urban flooding. Northwestern Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches with maxima of 12 inches. This rain may produce flash and urban flooding. Bermuda: 1 to 3 inches or 25 to 75 mm. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas for the next several hours. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible in squalls over portions of the east coast of the central and southern Florida Peninsula for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Monday. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much 1- 3 ft above normal tide levels in the extreme northwestern Bahamas. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |