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| #1094156 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 PM 04.Jun.2022) TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022 500 PM EDT Sat Jun 04 2022 Radar data and surface observations indicate that the circulation of the disturbance has become a little better defined since the last advisory, although the central area still consists of an area of multiple vorticity maxima extending from near Lake Okeechobee east-northeastward into the Atlantic. While the current structure still does not justify an upgrade to a tropical storm, the easternmost of these centers is near the main convective area, and if this continues the system could become a tropical storm in the next 6-12 hours. An earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission reported a large area of 50-kt winds at 3000 ft, and believable SFMR surface wind estimates of 35-40 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 40 kt. The initial motion is 050/16, and some of this is due to the ongoing re-formations of the center. The track guidance remains in good agreement that a general northeastward motion should continue through Sunday, followed by an east-northeastward to eastward motion Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the system will move away from Florida tonight, and then pass north of Bermuda on Monday on its way into the central Atlantic. Water vapor and air mass imagery show a mid- to upper-level trough over the southeastern United States and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. While this trough continues to aid strong westerly shear over the disturbance, the interaction between this trough and the disturbance is forecast to lead to a better-defined circulation during the next 12-24 h, which should allow the disturbance to become a tropical storm and strengthen a little. The long-term forecast for the system has gotten murkier. After about 60-72 h, several of the global models essentially split the system in two, with a center that forms in the northern part of the circulation merging with a frontal system to become an extratropical low, while the rest of the system turns more southward and slows down well to the east of Bermuda. Given the uncertainty, there will be no changes at this time from the previous forecast of extratropical transition and the associated track forecast. However, there is now an alternate scenario that may require changes to the track and intensity forecasts in later advisories. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall will diminish across South Florida and the Keys through this evening. Heavy rain will continue across the northwestern Bahamas tonight before diminishing by early Sunday. Heavy rain may begin to impact Bermuda Sunday night into Monday. The threat of flash flooding will continue to diminish this evening across South Florida, but urban flooding will continue. Flash and urban flooding is possible across the northwestern Bahamas. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in in the northwestern Bahamas for the next several hours, and are possible on Bermuda on Monday.. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 27.8N 79.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 05/0600Z 29.2N 77.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 05/1800Z 31.1N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 32.8N 69.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 34.4N 64.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 35.3N 59.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 36.9N 54.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 08/1800Z 40.0N 44.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/1800Z 44.5N 35.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven |