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| #1094192 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 PM 04.Jun.2022) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022 1100 PM EDT Sat Jun 04 2022 ...DISTURBANCE PULLING AWAY FROM FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.4N 78.2W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM ENE OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA ABOUT 840 MI...1355 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the northwestern Bahamas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 78.2 West. The system is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). A continued relatively fast northeast to east-northeast motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move away from the northwestern Bahamas and move near or to the north of Bermuda on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical or subtropical storm on Sunday, and some strengthening is possible. However, gradual weakening is expected early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days... high...90 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to bring 2 to 3 inches or 50 to 75 mm of rain across Bermuda Sunday night into Monday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |