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| #1094193 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 PM 04.Jun.2022) TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022 1100 PM EDT Sat Jun 04 2022 Satellite images, surface observations, and data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that system is still disorganized with an elongated circulation and thunderstorms confined to the eastern side of the disturbance. The heaviest rains have pulled away from Florida and the Bahamas, but there were numerous reports of flooding in both locations. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt based on the steady state nature of the system and the Air Force Hurricane Hunter data. The disturbance is moving fairly quickly to the northeast at 17 kt, and a continued relatively fast northeast to east-northeast motion is expected during the next few days as the system remains embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. This motion should bring the system close to or north of Bermuda on Monday. Beyond a few days, the models show a slow down due to the disturbance becoming weaker and vertically shallow. The new NHC track forecast is notably slower than the previous one, especially from days 3 to 5, and additional adjustments may be required if the model trends continue. This system is expected to become a tropical or subtropical cyclone overnight or on Sunday as it strengthens slightly in part due to the effects of a nearby mid- to upper-level trough. However, any strengthening and increase in organization will likely be short-lived due to the influences of strong westerly shear and dry air, and gradual weakening should commence on Monday. The models are trending toward a faster transition to an extratropical cyclone with the GFS, UKMET, and CMC showing the system merging with a front late Monday or Tuesday. The ECMWF shows a slower transition, however. The NHC forecast now predicts extratropical transition to be complete by 60 hours, shortly after its passage by Bermuda, but some of the models suggest it could occur sooner. KEY MESSAGES: 1. This system is forecast to become a tropical or subtropical storm on Sunday, and tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 28.4N 78.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 05/1200Z 29.7N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 06/0000Z 31.5N 72.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 32.9N 68.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 33.9N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 34.6N 59.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 08/0000Z 34.7N 55.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/0000Z 35.9N 50.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/0000Z 38.6N 45.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |