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| #1094256 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 AM 05.Jun.2022) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Alex Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022 1100 AM EDT Sun Jun 05 2022 Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Alex has strengthened a little since the last advisory. The aircraft reported a central pressure near 993 mb and maximum flight-level winds of 89 kt at 850 mb in the southeastern quadrant. However, the maximum reliable SFMR surface wind estimates are near 50 kt, so as mentioned previously the strongest winds may not be mixing down to the surface. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set to a possibly conservative 50 kt. Satellite imagery shows that Alex remains sheared, with the strongest convection to the east and northeast of the center. This was confirmed by the aircraft data, which indicated that the 850 and 700 mb centers were displaced from the surface center. The initial motion is quickly east-northeastward or 060/20 kt. A general east-northeastward motion is expected during the next 24 h or so, with the center of Alex passing north of Bermuda on Monday. After that, the GFS, ECWMF, and Canadian models forecast an eastward motion at a slower forward speed as Alex weakens, becomes extratropical, and becomes a shallow and elongated vortex. The new intensity forecast follows this scenario and is similar to the previous forecast. However, by 72-96 h the forecast track is to the south of the various consensus models, and some adjustment to this part of the forecast may be necessary later. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 12 h. After that, a combination of strong shear, dry air entrainment, and cooler sea surface temperatures along the forecast track should cause Alex to weaken. The cyclone is expected to become extratropical by 48 h and dissipate completely by 120 h. The new intensity forecast has only minor changes from the previous forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Alex is forecast to pass near or just north of Bermuda on Monday, and tropical storm conditions are expected on the island late tonight and Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 30.4N 73.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 31.7N 70.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 33.1N 66.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 34.2N 61.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 34.6N 57.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 08/0000Z 34.9N 53.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 08/1200Z 35.0N 50.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/1200Z 35.5N 47.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |