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| #1094403 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 AM 06.Jun.2022) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Alex Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022 1100 AM AST Mon Jun 06 2022 Alex continues to lack deep convection anywhere near its core, with the majority of the heavy showers and thunderstorms displaced nearly 200 n mi to the northeast of the center due to the persistently strong shear. Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the 700 mb center of the vortex is tilted some 30 n mi northeast of the low-level center, likely as a result of the shear. Based on a blend of flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds from the aircraft, the intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory. Given the lack of central convection and continued shear, some weakening and continued loss of tropical characteristics are likely today. However, the cyclone will probably maintain some of its intensity for the next day or so due to baroclinic processes. In 36 hours or so, the global models depict The post-tropical low merging with an extratropical cyclone over the north Atlantic, so the official forecast shows the system as dissipated by 48 hours. The storm continues to move rapidly toward the east-northeast, or around 065/25 kt. Alex should remain embedded in the southern portion of the mid-latitude westerlies and continue this general motion for the next day or two. The official forecast is close to both the simple and corrected dynamical consensus track forecasts, TVCN and HCCA respectively, and is also similar to the previous NHC prediction. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue on the island of Bermuda for the next several hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 34.0N 63.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 35.5N 59.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 07/1200Z 38.3N 52.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 08/0000Z 41.0N 46.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |