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| #1097071 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 PM 27.Jun.2022) TCDAT2 Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 500 PM AST Mon Jun 27 2022 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft just investigated the tropical wave to the east-southeast of the Windward Islands, and found that the system has not yet developed a closed circulation. However the plane did find an area of tropical-storm-force winds over the northern portion of the system. The disturbance is producing some cells of strong convection, but overall the system is not very well organized. Since there is a good chance that the disturbance will become a tropical storm before reaching the southern Windward Islands, advisories are being initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two. The environment looks fairly favorable for development, but the numerical guidance is generally not that bullish on strengthening for the next couple of days. The official intensity forecast is similar to the correct consensus model, HCCA. Although the center is not well defined, my best estimate of the initial motion is about 285/16 kt. A strong 500 mb subtropical ridge is likely to remain in place to the north of the system through the forecast period. This steering scenario should cause a west-northwestward to westward track for the next several days. The official track forecast is close to the dynamical model consensus. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is expected over the Windward Islands and northeastern Venezuela Tuesday night and into Wednesday. 2. Winds to tropical storm force are expected over portions of the southern Windward Islands beginning late Tuesday and into Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 8.6N 50.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 28/0600Z 9.3N 53.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 28/1800Z 10.1N 57.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 29/0600Z 10.8N 61.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 11.4N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 30/0600Z 11.8N 69.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 12.1N 72.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 12.2N 79.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 02/1800Z 12.3N 84.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch |