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| #1097103 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 27.Jun.2022) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 1100 PM AST Mon Jun 27 2022 ...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS BY TUESDAY EVENING... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...8.7N 52.8W ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM E OF TRINIDAD MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Venezuela has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the coast of Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana, including Islas de Margarita, Coche, and Cubagua. The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Bonaire. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Trinidad and Tobago * Grenada and its dependencies A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Coast of Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana, including Islas de Margarita, Coche, and Cubagua * Bonaire A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, the northern coast of Venezuela, Curacao, Aruba, and the northeastern coast of Colombia should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 8.7 North, longitude 52.8 West. The system is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A westward or west-northwestward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected through Thursday. On the forecast track, the system will pass near or over portions of the southern Windward Islands by late Tuesday or Tuesday night, and move over the southern Caribbean Sea or near the northern coast of Venezuela on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days if the disturbance remains over water. Conditions appear conducive for development if the disturbance remains over water, and it will likely become a tropical storm before reaching the southern Windward Islands or while moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce heavy rain across the southern Windward Islands and the northeastern coast of Venezuela starting Tuesday night into Wednesday. The following storm total rainfall amounts are expected: Islands from Guadeloupe to St. Lucia: 1 to 3 inches. St. Vincent, the Grenadines, and Barbados: 3 to 4 inches. Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, and northeastern Venezuela: 4 to 6 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the southern Windward Islands late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Bonaire by Wednesday evening. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg |