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| #1097314 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 29.Jun.2022) TCDAT2 Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 1100 AM AST Wed Jun 29 2022 The disturbance continues to appear fairly well organized on satellite images, with convective banding features noted over the northern portion of the system. However, low cloud motions from high-resolution visible satellite images and Curacao radar observations suggest that the system still does not have a closed circulation. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. The initial intensity estimate remains at 35 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB, and the system could become a tropical storm at any time today. Based on recent satellite fixes, the initial motion estimate is not quite as fast as earlier, or about 280/21 kt. A large mid-level ridge to the north of the system is forecast to be maintained for the next few days. This should force a continued westward, or slightly north of westward, motion. The official track forecast is in good agreement with the model consensus, and takes the system across Central America by Saturday morning. There is upper-level anticyclonic outflow over the area, and the vertical shear is forecast to remain low. Some strengthening seems likely, but the interaction with the land mass of South America will probably limit intensification for the next day or so. In 36 to 48 hours, when the system should be moving over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, it could approach hurricane strength. The official intensity forecast is similar to the corrected model consensus prediction. After the system crosses Central America and moves into the eastern North Pacific basin, the environment should be conducive for at least gradual strengthening. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is expected to spread westward across the Windward Islands and parts of northern Venezuela and northern Colombia today through Thursday morning. Localized flash flooding and mudslides will be possible. 2. Winds to tropical-storm-force are expected over the ABC Islands by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the northwestern coast of Venezuela and northeastern Colombia tonight and early Thursday. 3. There is greater-than-normal uncertainty in the system`s forecast intensity once it reaches the southwestern Caribbean Sea on late Thursday and Friday, which will depend on how much it interacts with land from tonight through early Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 11.4N 67.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 30/0000Z 11.8N 70.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 30/1200Z 12.0N 73.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 12.1N 77.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 11.9N 80.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 02/0000Z 11.7N 83.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 72H 02/1200Z 11.6N 86.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 03/1200Z 12.3N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 04/1200Z 13.3N 97.4W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch |