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| #1097388 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 PM 29.Jun.2022) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 1100 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022 ...CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.0N 70.6W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ESE OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of Curacao has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Curacao. The Meteorological Service of Aruba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Aruba. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Nicaragua/Costa Rica border to Laguna de Perlas Nicaragua A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coast of Venezuela from the Peninsula de Paraguana westward to the Colombia/Venezuela border including the Gulf of Venezuela * Coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela border westward to Santa Marta A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Limon Costa Rica northward to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border * North of Laguna de Perlas to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern coast of Venezuela and the northern coast of Colombia should monitor the progress of this system. Watches or warnings may be required for the Colombian Islands of the southwestern Caribbean on Thursday. Interests elsewhere along the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica should also monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 70.6 West. The system is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and a fast westward or west- northwestward motion is expected through Friday. On the forecast track, the system will pass across the southern Caribbean Sea and near the northern coast of Venezuela during the next few hours, near the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia early Thursday and over the southwestern Caribbean Sea later on Thursday and on Friday. The system is expected to be near or over Nicaragua by late Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days while the disturbance remains over water. Conditions appear conducive for development while the disturbance remains over water, and it is expected become a tropical storm while moving westward across the southwestern Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce heavy rain across the ABC Islands to portions of northern Venezuela and northeast Colombia through Thursday morning, then across Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Friday. The following storm total rainfall amounts are expected: North-Central Venezuela: 4 to 6 inches. Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire to northwestern Venezuela and northern Colombia: 3 to 5 inches. Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals around 10 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the northwestern coast of Venezuela and along the coast of northeastern Colombia through early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area in Nicaragua late Friday, and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas in Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Friday afternoon or evening. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |