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| #1097417 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 AM 30.Jun.2022) TCDAT2 Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 500 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Nighttime proxy-visible satellite imagery shows that the disturbance continues to become better defined (at least in the mid levels), with a formative low-level center moving across the Guajira Peninsula overnight and convective banding features to the north just off the coast. There is still no conclusive evidence that the circulation has closed off, but we should have a better idea of the system`s structure later today with visible imagery and a Hurricane Hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon. The initial motion estimate is westward, or 270/17 kt. For the next 36-48 hours, the track guidance is in excellent agreement that a strong mid-level ridge extending southward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is likely to force the disturbance/tropical cyclone on a south-of-due-west heading as it moves toward Central America. Based on the latest guidance, the NHC track forecast has been nudged south of the previous forecast while over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. After crossing Central America in 2-3 days, the orientation of the ridge should cause the system to move westward and then west-northwestward south of the coast of Mexico. No significant changes to the official track forecast were made during this period. In order for the system to develop a closed circulation and become a tropical storm, the key is for it to slow down, and it appears that will happen by 24 hours. Otherwise, warm waters and low shear should allow for strengthening while the system moves across the southwestern Caribbean Sea. It should be noted that additional strengthening could occur after the 36-hour forecast point until the system makes landfall in Nicaragua or Costa Rica, and the NHC intensity forecast is at the higher end of the guidance. After some weakening occurs over Central America, the system is expected to strengthen again over the eastern North Pacific, possibly becoming a hurricane by day 5. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is possible across portions of northern Colombia through this morning, and then across Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Friday. Areas of flash flooding are expected, along with the potential for mudslides. 2. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Watch areas, respectively, along the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected on the Colombian island of San Andres on Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 12.0N 72.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 30/1800Z 12.0N 75.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 01/0600Z 11.5N 79.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 11.1N 81.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 11.1N 84.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 02/1800Z 11.1N 87.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN 72H 03/0600Z 11.5N 89.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 12.8N 95.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 14.2N 100.9W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg |