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| #1097418 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:02 AM 30.Jun.2022) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 500 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022 ...DISTURBANCE MOVING OFF THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY AND STRENGTHEN WHILE APPROACHING NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.0N 72.4W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Colombia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the island of San Andres. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Nicaragua/Costa Rica border to Laguna de Perlas Nicaragua A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coast of Venezuela from the Peninsula de Paraguana westward to the Colombia/Venezuela border including the Gulf of Venezuela * Coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela border westward to Santa Marta * San Andres Colombia A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Limon Costa Rica northward to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border * North of Laguna de Perlas to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next few hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern coast of Colombia should monitor the progress of this system. Interests elsewhere along both the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica should also monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 72.4 West. The system is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this fast motion is expected to continue through tonight. Some decrease in forward speed with a continued motion toward the west is forecast on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the system will move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea today through Friday, cross southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica Friday night, and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast through Friday while the system is approaching Central America. Weakening is expected while the system cross Central America, but restrengthening is forecast on Saturday once it moves over the Pacific Ocean. Conditions appear conducive for development, and the disturbance is expected become a tropical storm while slowing down over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce heavy rain across portions of northern Colombia through this morning, then across Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Friday. The following storm total rainfall amounts are expected: Northern Colombia: 3 to 5 inches. Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated higher totals around 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to result in areas of flash flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will likely continue within the warning area along the coast of northeastern Colombia for the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area in Nicaragua late Friday, and tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch areas in Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Friday afternoon or evening. Tropical storm conditions are also possible on the Colombian islands of San Andres and Providencia on Friday. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg |