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| #1097491 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 PM 30.Jun.2022) TCDAT2 Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 500 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Deep convection associated with the disturbance is minimal, and in fact one could argue that the system lacks sufficient convection for classification via the Dvorak technique. The main band of shower activity is located well to the north of the location of the low-level vorticity maximum. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters were not able to close off a definite center of circulation, although they did report some light southwest winds over the southern portion of the system just to the north of Colombia. Observations from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum winds remain near 35 kt. Since the models generally agree that the system will slow its forward speed beginning tonight, it is still likely that it will develop a better-defined low level circulation soon. The initial motion estimate remains at 270/17 for now. A mid-tropospheric ridge extending southwestward into the northwestern Caribbean Sea should cause the disturbance to move a little south of west for the next 12 to 24 hours. Thereafter, a more zonally-oriented ridge is likely to result in a generally westward track across Central America and into the eastern Pacific. In 3 to 5 days, the system should move west-northwestward on the southwestern periphery of the ridge, to the south of Mexico. The NHC track forecast is a blend of the simple and corrected model consensus predictions. The environment for the system looks conducive for strengthening up to landfall, with very low vertical shear, warm waters, and a moist low- to mid-level air mass. After weakening during its passage across Central America, re-strengthening is expected over the eastern Pacific. The official intensity forecast is near the high end of the intensity model guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is possible across Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Friday. Areas of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected. 2. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua late Friday. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected on San Andres on Friday, along the Caribbean coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua within the Tropical Storm Warning areas late Friday, and are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch areas along the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua on Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 12.0N 75.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 01/0600Z 11.6N 78.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 01/1800Z 11.3N 81.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 11.3N 84.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 48H 02/1800Z 11.4N 86.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN 60H 03/0600Z 11.8N 89.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 12.5N 91.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 14.0N 97.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 15.4N 103.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch |