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| #1097551 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 AM 01.Jul.2022) TCDAT2 Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 500 AM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022 The disturbance is finally looking like a bona fide tropical cyclone. Deep convection has blossomed overnight in two primary bands around the potential center. But whether there is a well-defined center yet is the million dollar question. The system is gradually slowing down, so if a center has not formed yet, it should form very soon. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for later this morning to help determine if the disturbance has become a tropical storm. The disturbance is moving just south of due west and slightly slower at 265/16 kt. The system is forecast to lose a little more latitude today and slow down further while it approaches the coast of Central America, and it is expected to move across southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica tonight and emerge over the eastern Pacific waters on Saturday. After that time, strong mid-level ridging will remain established over the Gulf of Mexico, and the system is expected to turn west-northwestward in 2 to 3 days. This track essentially runs parallel to the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Mexico through the end of the forecast period, about 100-200 n mi off the coast. The track guidance has nudged slightly northward during the time the system is over the Pacific Ocean, with the ECMWF model the closest to the coast of Mexico, and the new NHC track forecast is just a little north of the previous forecast on days 4 and 5. Given the system`s potential proximity to land, interests all along the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern and southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. The system has 12-24 hours to strengthen in an environment of low vertical shear and over warm 28 degrees Celsius waters before it reaches Central America. The official intensity forecast at 24 hours, around the time the system reaches land, is a little higher than the available guidance to account for uncertainty in the initial analysis and to maintain continuity from the previous forecast. Some weakening is likely as the system moves over land, but restrengthening is anticipated over the Pacific waters where vertical shear is expected to remain low and waters will still be warm. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is likely across portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica today into Saturday. Areas of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected. 2. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua this evening or tonight. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected on San Andres today, along the Caribbean coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua within the Tropical Storm Warning areas by this evening, and are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch areas along the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua on Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 11.5N 79.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 01/1800Z 11.3N 81.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 02/0600Z 11.3N 84.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 02/1800Z 11.3N 86.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN 48H 03/0600Z 11.7N 89.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 12.4N 91.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 13.3N 94.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 15.1N 100.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 16.6N 105.8W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg |