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| #1097554 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:09 AM 01.Jul.2022) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 500 AM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022 ...DISTURBANCE ON THE CUSP OF BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.5N 79.2W ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Nicaragua/Costa Rica border to Laguna de Perlas Nicaragua A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Andres Colombia * Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to Puerto Sandino Nicaragua A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along both the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica, as well as the Pacific coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico, should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Warning will likely be required for portions of the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 79.2 West. The system is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a continued westward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday night. A west-northwestward motion is expected to begin on Sunday and continue into Monday. On the forecast track, the system will move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea today, cross southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica tonight, and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday. The system will then move offshore of but parallel to the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico Saturday through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast today while the system approaches the coast of Central America. Some weakening is expected tonight while the system crosses Nicaragua and Costa Rica, but restrengthening is anticipated Saturday through Monday while it moves over the Pacific Ocean. Conditions appear conducive for development, and the disturbance is expected become a tropical storm today while slowing down over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce heavy rain across Nicaragua and Costa Rica today into Saturday. The following storm total rainfall amounts are expected: Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated higher totals around 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to result in areas of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area in Nicaragua this evening or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected over San Andres Island today. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica by this evening and will spread westward to the Pacific coast within the warning areas by Saturday morning. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg |