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| #1097586 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 01.Jul.2022) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022 ...BONNIE HAS FORMED AND IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.2N 81.0W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM ESE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Nicaragua has discontinued the Hurricane Watch for the Caribbean coast and issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Pacific coast. The government of Costa Rica has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the Pacific coast. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Andres Colombia * Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua * Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to the border of Nicaragua and Honduras A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours. Interests elsewhere along both the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica, as well as the Pacific coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico, should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 81.0 West. Bonnie is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h) and a continued westward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday night. A west-northwestward motion is expected to begin on Sunday and continue into Monday. On the forecast track, the system will move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea today, cross southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica tonight, and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday. The system will then move offshore of but parallel to the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico Saturday through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Bonnie is expected to strengthen before it makes landfall tonight. After landfall, short term weakening is forecast on Saturday, but Bonnie is expected to restrengthen later this weekend and early next week over the eastern Pacific. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) north of the center. The minimum central pressure is estimated to be 1005 mb (29.68 inches) based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Bonnie will produce heavy rain across portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica through Saturday. The following storm total rainfall amounts are expected: Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, localized 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over San Andres Island today. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica by this evening and will spread westward to the Pacific coast within the warning areas overnight. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi |