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| #1097587 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:05 AM 01.Jul.2022) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022 Tropical Storm Bonnie has formed this morning over the western Caribbean Sea. Well-organized deep convection has persisted into the morning, and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission found a well-defined circulation center located about 100 n mi east of the Nicaragua coast. The plane found flight-level winds of 44 kt in the northeast quadrant, and SFMR data indicated 33 kt surface winds, supporting an initial intensity of 35 kt. Another reconnaissance mission is scheduled later today. Bonnie is moving just south of due west at 260/17 kt and has tracked slightly farther south than the prior forecast. The storm is expected to make landfall late tonight near the Nicaragua and Costa Rica border. After traversing Central America, Bonnie is expected to emerge over the eastern Pacific waters on Saturday, and it is forecast to turn west-northwestward shortly thereafter and track parallel to the coast of Central America and Mexico for the next several days. The track guidance is in good agreement during the forecast period, with the ECMWF still the northernmost solution and closest to land, while remaining offshore. The new forecast is slightly south of the previous forecast, partially based on the initial motion and position. Given the expected proximity to land, interests in coastal El Salvador, Guatemala and southwestern Mexico should continue to monitor Bonnie`s progress during the next several days. Bonnie remains in a low-shear and warm SST environment and is forecast to intensify during the next 12 hours prior to landfall. The official intensity forecast at 12 hours is at the high end of the intensity guidance. After Bonnie emerges into the eastern Pacific, the intensity forecast is similar to the prior forecast and aligned with the consensus intensity guidance for the remainder of the forecast period. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is likely across portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica today into Saturday. Areas of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected on San Andres today, along the Caribbean coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua within the Tropical Storm Warning areas by this evening, and along the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua overnight and early Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 11.2N 81.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 11.0N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 11.0N 85.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 03/0000Z 11.1N 88.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 03/1200Z 11.7N 90.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 12.5N 93.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 13.4N 96.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 15.1N 102.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 16.3N 107.2W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi |