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| #1097619 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 PM 01.Jul.2022) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 500 PM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022 Bonnie is approaching the coast of Central America. Satellite images indicate that the storm is becoming better organized, with deep convection increasing near the center and banding features becoming more prominent in all quadrants. The Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were 3.0/45 kt and 2.0/30 kt, respectively, and based on these estimates and the improvement in structure, the initial wind speed is increased a little to 40 kt. Bonnie is now moving due west at 270/15 kt, and this motion is expected to continue until landfall late tonight near the Nicaragua and Costa Rica border. Bonnie is forecast to emerge over the eastern Pacific waters on Saturday, and it is forecast to turn west-northwestward shortly thereafter and track parallel to the coast of Central America and Mexico for the next several days. The models have generally changed little this cycle, and the new NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one. Given the expected proximity to land, interests in coastal El Salvador, Guatemala and southwestern Mexico should continue to monitor Bonnie`s progress during the next several days. The tropical storm only has about 6 hours to strengthen before it reaches the coast. However, the environment remains favorable and given the improved structure, strengthening seems likely during that time. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Bonnie prior to landfall. Although some weakening is likely late tonight and early Saturday when the storm passes across Central America, it is expected to remain a tropical cyclone. Gradual intensification is expected later in the weekend and next week as the cyclone remains in a low-shear and warm SST environment over the eastern Pacific. The NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly faster rate of intensification than the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is likely across portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica today into Saturday. Areas of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected on San Andres during the next few hours, along the Caribbean coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua within the Tropical Storm Warning areas later this evening, and along the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua overnight and early Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 11.3N 82.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 11.2N 84.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 02/1800Z 11.3N 86.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 03/0600Z 11.6N 89.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 12.3N 92.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 13.2N 94.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 14.1N 97.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 15.6N 103.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 16.4N 108.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Hogsett |