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| #1097733 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 AM 02.Jul.2022) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Colin Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022 The center of Colin remains just inland over eastern South Carolina this morning, but nearly all of the heavy rains and strong winds are off the coastline of South and North Carolina. This asymmetric structure is due to about 20 kt of northwesterly shear, and since the shear is not expected to abate, the worst weather conditions should remain along and off the coast throughout the day and into Sunday. The initial intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory. Colin`s future looks pretty short. An approaching cold front will likely cause the circulation to become increasingly elongated tonight and Sunday, and the system is expected to dissipate or merge with the front by early Monday. Little change in intensity is expected prior to dissipation. The storm is moving northeastward at 6 kt. A slightly faster northeast to east-northeast motion is expected, which should take the center of Colin along or just offshore of the Carolina coast during the next 24 hours, followed by a track over the western Atlantic. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area along the North Carolina coast this afternoon into Sunday. 2. Rough surf and rip currents are likely to continue along the North Carolina coast through Sunday. 3. Areas of heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding across portions of coastal North Carolina through Sunday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 33.7N 79.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 12H 03/0000Z 34.3N 78.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 24H 03/1200Z 35.2N 76.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER PAMLICO SOUND 36H 04/0000Z 36.1N 74.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER ATLANTIC OCEAN 48H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |