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| #1153933 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 AM 22.Sep.2023) TCMAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162023 0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 75.0W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......210NE 0SE 0SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 75.0W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 75.0W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.6N 75.8W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...250NE 70SE 70SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 33.4N 76.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...250NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 35.3N 76.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...200NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 37.0N 76.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 38.3N 76.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 39.0N 75.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.5N 75.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 22/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI |