Show Selection:
Show plain - Location:
#873132 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 PM 27.Aug.2016)
TCDAT2

HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 27 2016

Gaston has become a hurricane again with a well-defined eye on
microwave images that has been occasionally showing up on
conventional satellite pictures. Dvorak estimates are T4.5/77 kt
from both TAFB and SAB, so the initial wind speed is increased to 75
kt. The environment near Gaston, other than some dry mid-level air,
looks conducive for strengthening for the next day or so. While
the environment doesn't change much in the next couple of days
overall, Gaston is expected to move very slowly, which could upwell
some cooler water. Thus the wind speed forecast will be leveled
off after 24 hours. A more consistent weakening trend is expected
beyond 72 hours when the cyclone moves over colder waters and
experiences stronger shear. The latest NHC prediction is higher
than the previous one, mostly owing to the initial conditions, and
is close to a blend of the FSU Superensemble and the intensity
consensus.

Satellite fixes show that Gaston is moving slower to the northwest,
at about 7 kt. The storm should continue to decelerate over the
next day or so as it reaches a break in the subtropical ridge, and
have a slow motion to the north or northeast from 24 to 48 hours.
The next shortwave trough in the mid-latitude is forecast to reach
Gaston in about 3 days, which will likely cause the hurricane to
recurve to the east-northeast, albeit at a slower rate of speed than
you normally see over the North Atlantic. Guidance has not changed
much since the last cycle, and the official forecast is basically an
update of the previous one, a bit slower than the model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 29.6N 54.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 30.1N 54.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 30.7N 55.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 31.0N 55.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 31.4N 54.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 32.6N 52.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 34.6N 48.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 37.5N 42.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake