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| #875703 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 AM 23.Sep.2016) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 23 2016 Lisa`s center remains exposed to the southwest of the deep convection due to around 40 kt of southwesterly shear as analyzed by UW-CIMSS and the SHIPS model fields. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB, but this could be a little generous. Strong shear is expected to continue for the next 24 to 36 hours. This shear, in combination with a drying mid-level atmosphere and marginal SSTs, should result in weakening. Lisa is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression tonight, and become a remnant low in 24 to 36 hours, as organized deep convection is expected to decay in the harsh environment. The remnant low of Lisa is forecast to open up into a trough in 3 to 4 days, in agreement with the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions. The initial motion estimate is 315/06. Lisa should continue moving generally northwestward around the subtropical ridge for the next 36 hours. After that time, the decaying system should recurve ahead of a deep-layer trough moving across the northern Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast is close to the previous one through 24 hours and has been nudged westward at 36 and 48 hours following the latest trend in the guidance. This forecast is close to the multi-model consensus aid TVCN and the GEFS ensemble mean. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 22.2N 36.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 23.1N 37.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 24.2N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 25.4N 41.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/1200Z 27.4N 42.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1200Z 31.5N 40.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan |