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| #877066 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 PM 06.Oct.2016) TCDAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 200 PM AST THU OCT 06 2016 This is a special advisory issued to upgrade Nicole to a hurricane. The system`s cloud pattern has become more symmetrical since this morning, with an eye evident on visible satellite images. The intensity is set to 70 kt, which is between the subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates. Nicole has been able to strengthen in an environment of shear on the order of 20 kt. Since the hurricane has been so resilient to the shear, some additional strengthening seems likely. By 48 hours, the shear is forecast to increase to over 40 kt, so some weakening is forecast around that time. The official intensity forecast is above the SHIPS and LGEM guidance for the early part of the period, and a blend of those 2 models thereafter. Little or no change was made to the track forecast from the previous regular advisory, and the track forecast reasoning is unchanged. Steering currents are expected to become weak within the next 12 to 24 hours, and Nicole should move slowly and erratically for the next several days. Swells associated with this slow-moving storm are affecting Bermuda, and these conditions are likely to continue for the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1800Z 27.3N 65.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 27.7N 65.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 27.9N 65.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 27.3N 64.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 26.9N 64.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 26.5N 65.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 27.0N 66.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 28.5N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch |