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| #897816 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 PM 08.Aug.2017) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 400 PM CDT Tue Aug 08 2017 Visible satellite images and surface synoptic data indicate that the center of the cyclone is nearing the northwest coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The overall cloud pattern remains fairly well organized, with distinct banding features and well-defined upper-level outflow. Based on the assumption that only slow weakening has been occurring, the current intensity is set at 35 kt. Franklin should begin to strengthen very soon, when its center moves over the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche. The dynamical guidance indicates that north-northeasterly shear will begin to affect the tropical cyclone when it moves farther west in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, which should be an impediment for strengthening. The official intensity forecast is above the SHIPS and LGEM guidance but close to the intensity model consensus. Given that it is quite possible that Franklin could become a hurricane by the time of landfall, it is prudent to maintain the Hurricane Watch for the southwest Gulf coast of Mexico. The motion continues west-northwestward or 290/10 kt. A mid-tropospheric high pressure area near the northwestern Gulf coast should cause a generally westward motion over the next couple of days. The official track forecast is similar to the previous ones, and not far from the latest dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 20.2N 90.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 20.5N 91.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 09/1800Z 20.6N 94.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 20.7N 96.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 20.4N 98.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |