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| #900111 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:53 PM 27.Aug.2017) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 400 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017 The unprecedented flooding rainfall event continues to unfold over a large area of southeastern Texas. While Harvey has been moving slowly eastward or east-southeastward today, bands of heavy rainfall have continued to form over the northwestern Gulf and train inland over much of the upper Texas coast and southwestern Louisiana. Storm total rainfall amounts in the 20-27 inch range are quite common in the Greater Houston area, and additional rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches are expected over the next several days. Rainfall total could reach 50 inches in some locations, which would be historic for that area. Harvey is still producing tropical-storm-force winds, with a recent observation of 34 kt with a gust to 46 kt at New Braunfels, Texas. The NHC track guidance is in better agreement showing Harvey moving just offshore of the Texas coast on Monday, then turning northward and moving inland over northeastern Texas by 72 hours. All of the global models show some slight deepening of the system after it moves over water, but given the lack of an inner core, significant strengthening is not anticipated. Although a tropical storm watch has been issued, which may need to be extended eastward along the upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coast tonight, heavy rainfall and life-threatening flooding continue to the primary threats. Key Messages: 1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue across southeastern Texas. Additional rainfall accumulations of 15 to 25 inches are expected, with isolated storm totals as high as 50 inches, through Friday. Please heed the advice of local officials. Do not attempt to travel if you are in a safe place, and do not drive into flooded roadways. Refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard. A summary of rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 29.0N 97.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 28/0600Z 28.7N 96.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 28/1800Z 28.4N 96.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 36H 29/0600Z 28.2N 96.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 29/1800Z 28.4N 95.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 30/1800Z 29.9N 95.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 31/1800Z 31.8N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 01/1800Z 33.5N 93.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown |