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| #903560 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 AM 18.Sep.2017) TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Lee Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 Lee's cloud pattern has deteriorated considerably this morning. All that remains of the deep convection are a few fragmented bands in the northeast quadrant. The initial intensity is generously held at 30 kt for this advisory. Deep-layer shear is expected to increase during the next 12 to 24 hours, and this inhibiting factor should prevent the cyclone from maintaining what is left of the deep convection. Consequently, Lee should degenerate into a remnant low by tonight. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward or 290/11 kt. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected through the entire forecast period, or until the cyclone dissipates in 3 days or earlier. No significant changes were made to the NHC track from previous advisory and the official forecast is based mainly on the HFIP Corrected Consensus technique. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 14.1N 39.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 14.9N 41.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 16.0N 42.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/1800Z 17.1N 44.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/0600Z 18.5N 45.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts |