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| #904850 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 PM 27.Sep.2017) TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 47 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 PM EDT Wed Sep 27 2017 Maria`s banding structure remains fairly well defined over the eastern portion of the circulation, however dry air continues to limit convection over the western half of the hurricane. The initial wind speed is once again set at 65 kt, which is based on the earlier aircraft reports. The westerly shear over Maria is forecast to lessen over the next day or so, but cooler waters along the track of the storm are likely to result in a slow decrease in intensity. Maria is expected to become an extratropical low on Saturday, and be absorbed a larger low pressure area over the northeastern Atlantic on Sunday. Maria is moving north-northeastward or 030/6 kt. The hurricane should turn east-northeastward and begin to accelerate on Thursday as it becomes embedded within the mid-latitude westerly flow. By Saturday, the cyclone should further accelerate ahead of trough moving off the coast of the northeast United States and eastern Canada. As has been the case over the past few days, the spread in the guidance is largely along track or speed differences, and the NHC forecast continues to be near the various consensus models to account for these differences. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria is forecast to slowly move away from the North Carolina coast this evening. However, tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along portions of the North Carolina coast for a few more hours. These winds are expected to diminish later this evening. 2. Swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 36.2N 72.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 36.6N 71.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 36.9N 68.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 37.2N 64.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 38.6N 59.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 44.0N 43.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 01/1800Z 50.0N 23.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Brown |