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| #905171 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 AM 30.Sep.2017) TCDAT4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Discussion Number 49 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 AM AST Sat Sep 30 2017 Lee is now over water colder than 20 degrees Celsius and is being blasted by 35 kt of west-northwesterly shear, and it has not been producing deep convection for at least the past 12 hours. The cyclone has therefore become post tropical, and this will be the last advisory. Without any deep convection, subjective and objective Dvorak numbers have decreased, and the initial intensity is estimated to be 45 kt. Lee continues to accelerate northeastward with an initial motion estimate of 050/44 kt. Continued acceleration is expected today, although the global model fields indicate that Lee's circulation will open up into a trough within the next 6 to 12 hours. A 12-hour point is provided in the official forecast for continuity's sake, but Lee will most likely have dissipated by then. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and in High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR. These forecasts are available on the web at http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin and at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 46.7N 35.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 30/1800Z 49.9N 24.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg |