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| #927454 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 27.May.2018) TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 1000 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018 The 0130 UTC center penetration by the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicated that the central pressure had held at 991 mb, and no stronger winds were found after the earlier pass through the center. Therefore the intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory. The system is still not well organized with some elongation of the center noted. Deep convection near the center remains minimal, so the cyclone is still subtropical, and it appears that the window of opportunity for Alberto to become tropical has essentially closed. Little change in strength is anticipated before landfall, which is consistent with the latest intensity model consensus and the Florida State University Superensemble and HCCA predictions. The forward motion has slowed and turned toward the left and is now estimated to be 315/08 kt. Alberto is moving on the northeastern side of a broad deep-layer cyclonic circulation. Early this week, a ridge is forecast to build to the east of the storm, and a trough will approach Alberto from the northwest. This pattern should induce a northward turn over the next few days. Due to the recent more northwestward motion of the storm, the first 12-24 hours of the official forecast have been shifted a little to the west of the previous one. Overall, however the latest NHC forecast has not been changed much and is close to the dynamical model consensus. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The risk of flooding and flash flooding over western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and south Florida will continue through Monday. Heavy rain and the risk of flooding will begin across the Florida Panhandle tonight, then spread northward from the Florida Panhandle into much of Alabama, western Georgia, and Tennessee through Tuesday. 2. Hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the eastern Gulf Coast overnight and tomorrow, including areas well east of the track of Alberto`s center. Residents in the storm surge watch area are encouraged to follow guidance given by their local government officials. 3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within portions of the tropical storm warning area overnight and tomorrow. 4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to affect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 28.5N 85.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 29.6N 86.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 31.2N 86.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 29/1200Z 33.3N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/0000Z 35.8N 87.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/0000Z 41.5N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0000Z 46.5N 82.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |