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| #927506 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:53 AM 28.May.2018) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Alberto Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 700 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018 ...ALBERTO MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.0N 86.0W ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SSE OF DESTIN FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Suwannee River to Navarre Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Suwannee River to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto was located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 86.0 West. Alberto is moving northward near 6 mph (9 km/h). A faster northward or north-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Alberto will cross the northern Gulf Coast in the warning area this afternoon or evening. After landfall, the system is forecast to move well inland into the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Alberto reaches the northern Gulf Coast later today. Steady weakening is forecast after landfall, and Alberto will likely become a subtropical depression tonight or early Tuesday and degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday afternoon. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. An elevated observing station located about 15 miles (25 km) south of Apalachicola, Florida, has recently reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h). A wind gust to 39 mph (63 km/h) was recently observed at Apalachicola, Florida. The estimated minimum central pressure from reconnaissance aircraft data is 991 mb (29.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Tuesday: Central Cuba...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm-totals of 20 to 25 inches. The Florida panhandle into much of Alabama and western Georgia...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. The Florida Keys and Florida peninsula...Additional 1 to 4 inches, isolated 10 inches. Rest of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley into the lower mid Atlantic from Tennessee east through the Carolinas...2 to 6 inches. Rains in Cuba could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Flooding and flash flooding are possible in the southeast United States, including Florida. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread across the warning area throughout the day. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Suwannee River to Navarre Florida...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge- related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. TORNADOES: A couple of brief tornadoes are possible today from northern Florida into central and southern Georgia, southern South Carolina, and southeastern Alabama. SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will continue to affect the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more information, consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown |